In late 2024, astronomers spotted a new space rock, known as asteroid 2024 YR4, heading toward our part of the solar system. Early models showed a 3% chance it could hit Earth by 2032. New data has changed that outcome. Earth is now in the clear—but the Moon might not be.
Updated Trajectory of the Moon-Approaching Asteroid
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists measured the asteroid’s size at around 60 meters (200 feet)—as tall as a 15-story building. With refined tracking, experts now predict a 3.8% chance of the object colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
This new impact estimate is more than double the 1.7% risk first reported in February. You can read NASA’s latest trajectory update for more technical details.
What a Lunar Collision Could Teach Us
If this asteroid on a lunar trajectory strikes, it would leave a visible crater, but it won’t affect the Moon’s orbit or pose any threat to Earth.
The impact would give researchers a rare opportunity to observe a real-time collision in space. A similar opportunity happened during NASA’s DART mission in 2022. These types of events provide vital insight into asteroid behavior and the Moon’s surface composition.
Next Steps in Asteroid Tracking
By mid-April 2025, the asteroid will move too far from Earth for ground-based telescopes. However, the James Webb Space Telescope will take follow-up images in late April or early May.
These observations will help experts confirm the asteroid’s path and reassess the risk of a Moon impact. For more on this process, visit our guide to how NASA tracks near-Earth objects.
Why Monitoring Space Rocks Matters
The case of asteroid 2024 YR4 shows how important it is to constantly monitor near-Earth objects (NEOs). With the help of telescopes like JWST, scientists can now track even small bodies with more accuracy than ever before.
These advancements play a key role in planetary defense. If a future object threatens Earth, early detection gives us the best shot at avoiding disaster. Learn more about how planetary defense strategies work.
Conclusion: A Lunar Impact Worth Watching
Although asteroid 2024 YR4 will miss Earth, the possibility of a Moon impact presents a valuable chance for scientific discovery. As the date approaches, updates from NASA and ESA will continue to refine its path.
This story reminds us that space is always active—and that watching it closely helps protect our future.
